Sports Betting Tips: Fading the Public

You’re either a veteran of the sports industry or a newbie and you’ve been following the advice on this site. There’s a good chance you’ve visited to do research on upcoming games. You’ve probably also seen the “consensus” information next to each game that tells you which team is likely to win. A 70% public opinion might make it seem like a good bet. This feeling, while not always correct, isn’t necessarily true in sports betting.

If The Public Always Won…

When betting on sports, one of the most important principles to remember is that if the public lost more than it won, then sports books would cease being in existence. This is a simplified version of the truth, but it is generally true. Sport books and casinos are in business to make a lot of money. They will change or discontinue offering a certain area if they lose money. Online sportbooks are alive and well so it is safe to assume they are making money, and that the public will lose their money over time.

Since years, I have been encouraging people to believe in reverse public opinion. As with most of my advice here at SportBooks Review I don’t suggest that you blindly place bets against teams with higher public support. However, it is something I have advised people to keep in mind as they do their research. You can take advantage of situations when comparing the public consensus to line movement is very helpful.

Public Consensus and Line Movement

We discussed the many factors that can cause sport books to move their line in our Line Movement article. One factor that could cause sport books to move the line is if one team wagers more on it than the others. This can lead to a situation where the books lose large amounts of money if the winning team wins. Books prefer to have an even number of bets on each side of a game so that regardless of which team wins, they will come out on top because of the juice. Newbies can wager $110 to win $100 and the $10 is the juice. It’s worth looking at the line movements and consensus percentages for any games you are interested in betting on. Sometimes, there may be valuable hidden information that can give you an edge.

If you find a game in which the public bets heavily on one team (e.g. 70% or more), but the line does not move from its original value, you need to question why. It’s possible that the books are not moving the line to attract more bettors for the other team if the public is heavily betting on one team. Either the books believe the public will lose or the sharp-money gamblers already have their money on the other team. This is a red flag. This is a red flag that you should not blindly place your money on, but it’s possible to overlook situations in which these numbers are too strong.


In general, I enjoy betting against the public. This is especially true when there is strong public support for the underdog. You probably already know that my articles have a common theme: research. We’re talking here about your money, so it is crucial to do your research and find an advantage before placing your bet. This is not a one-size fits all strategy as it is with most of my advice. It is part of a bigger strategy that involves doing your research and finding solid money-making opportunities.

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